Dr Le Dinh An, director of the National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecast (NCSIF), spoke to Dau Tu (Investment) newspaper about the need for accurate financial data.

In an article recently published in Dau Tu, you emphasised the importance of information, forecasting and critical analysis as the nucleus of economic plans of action. Could you elaborate on that?

It is time to focus on economic data as an important development resource. Forecasting and warning about the state of the economy is an indispensable tool in economic management, especially in macro-economics, as part of ensuring sustainable development.

Date dissemination, forecasting and critical analysis should be the nucleus of any plan of action.

Facts have shown that correct forecasting paves the way for making right decisions. Wrong forecasts just leave people confused. This is increasingly necessary in a socialist-oriented market economy whose market factors have not yet fully developed in Viet Nam at present time.

Economic forecasting has often been poorly produced, creating real problems for the Government in developing policies and avoiding negative economic developments. As head of the NCSIF, do you worry about this?

It is true that socio-economic forecasting exposed many shortcomings during the 2008-09 world monetary and financial crisis and the regional financial crisis in 1997.

Although economic information and forecasting predictions have been disseminated, and helped contribute to policy planning and economic development strategy, it remains limited, and sometimes is either not good enough or out of date.

Socio-economic forecasting isn’t really new, but it hasn’t yet received enough attention and made a matter of course for Government offices.

How should we approach the task of information dissemination and forecasting?

When the economy develops and expands its global relations, it is a must to raise the quality of information dissemination and forecasting through building a suitable forecasting methodology, and a re-organising of the forecasting system...The process of forecasting and announcing of the data must also be methodical.

Where should we start?

First and foremost, concentration should be centred on national socio-economic information and forecasting, ensuring a sufficient database is created and updating both domestic and international information and figures.

How about other aspects?

At present, the NCSIF is building a project designed to improve the quality and efficiency of information dissemination and forecasting. To do so, it is essential to have a complete legal framework. In my opinion, a Government decree is needed to regulate economic information activities in the long term. However, in the short term a Prime Minister’s instruction about economic information dissemination, forecast and warning would be sufficient.

At present, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has been assigned to supervise the management of national economy, thereby it will be a key office to analyse, forecast and issue warnings about socio-economic situation.

In addition, attention needs to be paid to organising and building an information supply mechanism which will integrate economic forecasting and warnings into the supervision process of the socio-economic development situation, and the development of annual and five-year economic plans and strategies. — VNS